Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colts 25, Texans 24 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.2 points and 48.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Texans' projected points come from. Expect Colts to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (6th) outranks Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 17 and Colts by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texans would be favoured by 2.4. The game is on CBS.
Result: Texans 17, Colts 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 12.9.
More: Texans schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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