Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bills 28, Chargers 20 at Highmark Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Bills win about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 47.9 combined points.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game).
Bills' below-average defense (20th) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 8 and Bills by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bills by about 6.1. The game is on FOX.
Result: Chargers 16, Bills 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.7 points and the total by 7.9.
More: Chargers schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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