Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lions 30, Jets 22 at Ford Field in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Lions win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 51.6 combined points.
The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Lions' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jets puts up. Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 9 and Lions by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lions by about 5.2. The game is on FOX.
Result: Jets 24, Lions 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 3.4.
More: Jets schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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