Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Giants 23, Titans 19 at MetLife Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Giants win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 42.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game).
Expect Titans to find it hard going: Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense) meets Titans' below-average defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 13 and Giants by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Giants by about 1.8. The game is on CBS.
Result: Titans 7, Giants 12. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 23.5.
More: Titans schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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