Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected 49ers 30, Cardinals 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: 49ers win about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 47.6 combined points.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game).
Expect Cardinals to find it hard going: 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) outranks Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 5 and 49ers by 29 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 9.2. The game is on FOX.
Result: Cardinals 30, 49ers 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 18.4.
More: Cardinals schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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