Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vikings 24, Buccaneers 19 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Vikings win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 42.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up. Expect Buccaneers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 22 and Buccaneers by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
Result: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 3.8.
More: Vikings schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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