Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ravens 29, Cowboys 25 at Maracanã Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Ravens win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 53 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game).
Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 21 and Cowboys by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Ravens are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1 points and the total by 12.
More: Ravens schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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