Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Saints 24, Raiders 21 at Caesars Superdome in Week 3. That is a lean: Saints win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Expect Raiders to find it hard going: Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 14 and Saints by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 0.3. The game is on CBS.
Result: Raiders 35, Saints 27. Raiders won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.9 points).
More: Raiders schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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