Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rams 22, Broncos 22 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 44.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets Broncos' strong defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rams puts up. Expect Broncos to find it hard going: Rams' strong defense (9th) outranks Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 17 and Broncos by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
Result: Rams 26, Broncos 30. Broncos won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.5 points).
More: Rams schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.