Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eagles 23, Bears 21 at Soldier Field in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Eagles win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Expect Eagles to find it hard going: Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bears puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 19 and Bears by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Eagles are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
Result: Eagles 7, Bears 27. Bears won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.7 points).
More: Eagles schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 3 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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