Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 22, Giants 22 at MetLife Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 43.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game).
Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense) meets Cardinals' struggling defense (28th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 18 and Giants by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Cardinals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Cardinals schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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