NFL Week 4 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

This week · Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Colts at Commanders (0.5-point margin), the highest projected total is Colts at Commanders (52.8 points) and the lowest is Steelers at Browns (39.5). 7 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

1 game has finished so far: the model picked the winner in 1 of them (100%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

FinalPrime Video
Steelers19final 24
Browns20final 27
Final: Steelers 24, Browns 27. We projected Browns 20-19 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 77°F, Wind 11 mph.Recorded at kickoff · nflverse
Our number
CLE by 0.7
Total 39.5
DraftKings
PIT -2.5
Total 38.5
Our number — CLE by 0.7 · Total 39.5 | DraftKings — PIT -2.5 · Total 38.5
Final CLE by 3. CLE covered the spread. 51 points — over the 38.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 1, 7:27 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Browns 52% · total 39.5Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM EDTNFL Net
Colts27
Commanders26
We project Colts 27-26, a 0.5-point margin with 52.8 total points; Colts win 52% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 66°F, Wind 4 mph SW.Kickoff forecast for London · MET Norway · last stored copy
Our number
IND by 0.5
Total 52.8
DraftKings
IND -4.5
Total 47.5
Our number — IND by 0.5 · Total 52.8 | DraftKings — IND -4.5 · Total 47.5
We're 4 points higher on WAS than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colts 52% · total 52.8Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Patriots22
Bills26
We project Bills 26-22, a 4.7-point margin with 47.9 total points; Bills win 65% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 67°F, Wind 7 mph SW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
BUF by 4.7
Total 47.9
DraftKings
BUF -7
Total 49.5
Our number — BUF by 4.7 · Total 47.9 | DraftKings — BUF -7 · Total 49.5
We're 2.3 points higher on NE than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bills 65% · total 47.9Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Jets20
Bears25
We project Bears 25-20, a 5.7-point margin with 44.9 total points; Bears win 67% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 66°F, Wind 10 mph W, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
CHI by 5.7
Total 45
DraftKings
CHI -3.5
Total 43.5
Our number — CHI by 5.7 · Total 45 | DraftKings — CHI -3.5 · Total 43.5
We're 2.2 points higher on CHI than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bears 67% · total 44.9Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Jaguars25
Bengals23
We project Jaguars 25-23, a 1.6-point margin with 47.8 total points; Jaguars win 55% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 70°F, Wind 1 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
JAX by 1.6
Total 47.8
DraftKings
CIN -2.5
Total 51.5
Our number — JAX by 1.6 · Total 47.8 | DraftKings — CIN -2.5 · Total 51.5
We're 4.1 points higher on JAX than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaguars 55% · total 47.8Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Cardinals22
Giants22
We project Cardinals 22-22, a 0.7-point margin with 43.7 total points; Cardinals win 52% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 66°F, Wind 8 mph E, 6% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
ARI by 0.7
Total 43.6
DraftKings
ARI -2.5
Total 44.5
Our number — ARI by 0.7 · Total 43.6 | DraftKings — ARI -2.5 · Total 44.5
We're 1.8 points higher on NYG than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cardinals 52% · total 43.7Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Rams24
Eagles21
We project Rams 24-21, a 2.5-point margin with 44.9 total points; Rams win 58% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 66°F, Wind 5 mph E, 32% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
LA by 2.5
Total 44.9
DraftKings
LA -3.5
Total 42.5
Our number — LA by 2.5 · Total 44.9 | DraftKings — LA -3.5 · Total 42.5
We're 1 points higher on PHI than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rams 58% · total 44.9Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Packers23
Buccaneers21
We project Packers 23-21, a 2.7-point margin with 44.1 total points; Packers win 59% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 88°F, Wind 7 mph SSE, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
GB by 2.7
Total 44.2
DraftKings
GB -3
Total 39.5
Our number — GB by 2.7 · Total 44.2 | DraftKings — GB -3 · Total 39.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Packers 59% · total 44.1Full preview →

Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Titans16
Ravens29
We project Ravens 29-16, a 13.2-point margin with 45.4 total points; Ravens win 85% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Rain showers likely, 64°F, Wind 6 mph E, 69% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
BAL by 13.2
Total 45.4
DraftKings
BAL -11.5
Total 42.5
Our number — BAL by 13.2 · Total 45.4 | DraftKings — BAL -11.5 · Total 42.5
We're 1.7 points higher on BAL than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ravens 85% · total 45.4Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Cowboys24
Texans28
We project Texans 28-24, a 3.5-point margin with 51.6 total points; Texans win 61% of the time.
Our number
HOU by 3.5
Total 51.6
DraftKings
HOU -3
Total 48.5
Our number — HOU by 3.5 · Total 51.6 | DraftKings — HOU -3 · Total 48.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texans 61% · total 51.6Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM EDTFOX
Dolphins16
Vikings27
We project Vikings 27-16, a 11.9-point margin with 42.9 total points; Vikings win 82% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
MIN by 11.9
Total 42.9
DraftKings
MIN -10
Total 38.5
Our number — MIN by 11.9 · Total 42.9 | DraftKings — MIN -10 · Total 38.5
We're 1.9 points higher on MIN than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vikings 82% · total 42.9Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM EDTCBS
Chiefs25
Raiders22
We project Chiefs 25-22, a 2.4-point margin with 47.2 total points; Chiefs win 58% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
KC by 2.4
Total 47.2
DraftKings
KC -4.5
Total 47.5
Our number — KC by 2.4 · Total 47.2 | DraftKings — KC -4.5 · Total 47.5
We're 2.1 points higher on LV than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chiefs 58% · total 47.2Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM EDTCBS
Broncos22
49ers27
We project 49ers 27-22, a 5.7-point margin with 48.6 total points; 49ers win 68% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 87°F, Wind 1 mph NNW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
SF by 5.7
Total 48.6
DraftKings
SF -3
Total 47.5
Our number — SF by 5.7 · Total 48.6 | DraftKings — SF -3 · Total 47.5
We're 2.7 points higher on SF than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
49ers 68% · total 48.6Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM EDTCBS
Chargers15
Seahawks25
We project Seahawks 25-15, a 9.2-point margin with 39.9 total points; Seahawks win 77% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 66°F, Wind 3 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
SEA by 9.2
Total 39.9
DraftKings
SEA -7
Total 42.5
Our number — SEA by 9.2 · Total 39.9 | DraftKings — SEA -7 · Total 42.5
We're 2.2 points higher on SEA than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Seahawks 77% · total 39.9Full preview →
Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM EDTNBC
Lions27
Panthers26
We project Lions 27-26, a 1.4-point margin with 52.4 total points; Lions win 55% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 67°F, Wind 2 mph NNE, 52% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service · last stored copy
Our number
DET by 1.4
Total 52.3
DraftKings
DET -3.5
Total 50.5
Our number — DET by 1.4 · Total 52.3 | DraftKings — DET -3.5 · Total 50.5
We're 2.1 points higher on CAR than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lions 55% · total 52.4Full preview →
Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM EDTESPN
Falcons22
Saints25
We project Saints 25-22, a 2.9-point margin with 47.7 total points; Saints win 59% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
NO by 2.9
Total 47.6
DraftKings
NO -2.5
Total 47.5
Our number — NO by 2.9 · Total 47.6 | DraftKings — NO -2.5 · Total 47.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Saints 59% · total 47.7Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.