Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 28, Cowboys 24 at Reliant Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Texans win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cowboys puts up. Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Texans' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 13 and Texans by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 0.9. The game is on FOX.
More: Cowboys schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.