Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 23, Buccaneers 21 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Packers win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 20 and Buccaneers by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Packers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Packers schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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