Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 24, Eagles 21 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rams puts up. Rams' strong defense (9th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 19 and Eagles by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Rams schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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