Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 29, Titans 16 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Ravens win about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 45.4 combined points.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (26th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 4 and Ravens by 30 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 10.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Titans schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.