Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 27, Dolphins 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 42.9 combined points.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Vikings' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 5 and Vikings by 29 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 9.3. The game is on FOX.
More: Dolphins schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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