Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 25, Raiders 22 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th). Chiefs' strong defense (5th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 19 and Raiders by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Chiefs are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Chiefs schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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