Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 25, Chargers 15 at Lumen Field in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 39.9 combined points.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) against Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 8 and Seahawks by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 6.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Chargers schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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