Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 25, Falcons 22 at Caesars Superdome in Week 4. That is a lean: Saints win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense). Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 14 and Saints by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 0.3. The game is on ESPN.
More: Falcons schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 4 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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