Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 29, Buccaneers 22 at AT&T Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Cowboys win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 51 combined points.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Buccaneers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 10 and Cowboys by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cowboys by about 4.8. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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