NFL Week 5 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)
Updated Oct 2, 2026
Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season has 15 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Bills at Rams (0.4-point margin), the highest projected total is Lions at Cardinals (54.1 points) and the lowest is Texans at Titans (40.9). 6 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every game
- Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM EDTPrime Video
Cowboys29We project Cowboys 29-22, a 7.4-point margin with 51 total points; Cowboys win 72% of the time.
Our numberDAL by 7.4Total 51DraftKingsDAL -9.5Total 47.5Our number — DAL by 7.4 · Total 51 | DraftKings — DAL -9.5 · Total 47.5
We're 2.1 points higher on TB than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cowboys 72% · total 51Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM EDTNFL Net
Eagles18
Jaguars25We project Jaguars 25-18, a 7.2-point margin with 42.4 total points; Jaguars win 72% of the time.
Our numberJAX by 7.2Total 42.4DraftKingsJAX -3Total 44.5Our number — JAX by 7.2 · Total 42.4 | DraftKings — JAX -3 · Total 44.5
We're 4.2 points higher on JAX than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaguars 72% · total 42.4Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Bears23
Packers24We project Packers 24-23, a 0.5-point margin with 46.8 total points; Packers win 51% of the time.
Our numberGB by 0.5Total 46.8DraftKingsGB -2.5Total 45.5Our number — GB by 0.5 · Total 46.8 | DraftKings — GB -2.5 · Total 45.5
We're 2 points higher on CHI than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Packers 51% · total 46.8Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Texans24
Titans17We project Texans 24-17, a 6.3-point margin with 40.9 total points; Texans win 69% of the time.
Our numberHOU by 6.3Total 40.9DraftKingsHOU -6.5Total 39.5Our number — HOU by 6.3 · Total 40.9 | DraftKings — HOU -6.5 · Total 39.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texans 69% · total 40.9Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Bengals27
Dolphins21We project Bengals 27-21, a 5.3-point margin with 48 total points; Bengals win 67% of the time.
Our numberCIN by 5.3Total 48DraftKingsCIN -8.5Total 46.5Our number — CIN by 5.3 · Total 48 | DraftKings — CIN -8.5 · Total 46.5
We're 3.2 points higher on MIA than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bengals 67% · total 48Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Raiders20
Patriots23We project Patriots 23-20, a 3.6-point margin with 43.1 total points; Patriots win 61% of the time.
Our numberNE by 3.6Total 43.1DraftKingsNE -3.5Total 44.5Our number — NE by 3.6 · Total 43.1 | DraftKings — NE -3.5 · Total 44.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Patriots 61% · total 43.1Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Vikings25
Saints20We project Vikings 25-20, a 4-point margin with 44.9 total points; Vikings win 63% of the time.
Indoors (dome).Our numberMIN by 4Total 44.9DraftKingsMIN -2.5Total 44.5Our number — MIN by 4 · Total 44.9 | DraftKings — MIN -2.5 · Total 44.5
We're 1.5 points higher on MIN than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vikings 63% · total 44.9Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Browns21
Jets22We project Jets 22-21, a 0.8-point margin with 42.9 total points; Jets win 52% of the time.
Our numberNYJ by 0.8Total 42.9DraftKingsNYJ -2.5Total 39.5Our number — NYJ by 0.8 · Total 42.9 | DraftKings — NYJ -2.5 · Total 39.5
We're 1.7 points higher on CLE than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 1, 9:39 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jets 52% · total 42.9Full preview →
- Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Colts23
Steelers25We project Steelers 25-23, a 2.4-point margin with 48.4 total points; Steelers win 58% of the time.
Our numberPIT by 2.4Total 48.4DraftKingsPIT -2.5Total 44.5Our number — PIT by 2.4 · Total 48.4 | DraftKings — PIT -2.5 · Total 44.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 1, 9:39 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Steelers 58% · total 48.4Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Giants20We project Commanders 26-20, a 6.5-point margin with 45.7 total points; Commanders win 70% of the time.
Our numberWAS by 6.5Total 45.7DraftKingsWAS -2.5Total 43.5Our number — WAS by 6.5 · Total 45.7 | DraftKings — WAS -2.5 · Total 43.5
We're 4 points higher on WAS than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Commanders 70% · total 45.7Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM EDTCBS
Broncos23
Chargers21We project Broncos 23-21, a 1.8-point margin with 44.2 total points; Broncos win 56% of the time.
Indoors (dome).Our numberDEN by 1.8Total 44.1DraftKingsDEN -2.5Total 43.5Our number — DEN by 1.8 · Total 44.1 | DraftKings — DEN -2.5 · Total 43.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Broncos 56% · total 44.2Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDTFOX
Lions29We project Lions 29-25, a 3.3-point margin with 54.1 total points; Lions win 60% of the time.
Our numberDET by 3.3Total 54.1DraftKingsDET -5.5Total 52.5Our number — DET by 3.3 · Total 54.1 | DraftKings — DET -5.5 · Total 52.5
We're 2.2 points higher on ARI than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Lions 60% · total 54.1Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDTFOX
49ers22
Seahawks24We project Seahawks 24-22, a 1.8-point margin with 46.6 total points; Seahawks win 56% of the time.
Our numberSEA by 1.8Total 46.6DraftKingsSEA -3Total 47.5Our number — SEA by 1.8 · Total 46.6 | DraftKings — SEA -3 · Total 47.5
We're 1.2 points higher on SF than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Seahawks 56% · total 46.6Full preview → - Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM EDTNBC
Ravens26
Falcons23We project Ravens 26-23, a 3.7-point margin with 48.7 total points; Ravens win 62% of the time.
Our numberBAL by 3.7Total 48.7DraftKingsBAL -6Total 49.5Our number — BAL by 3.7 · Total 48.7 | DraftKings — BAL -6 · Total 49.5
We're 2.3 points higher on ATL than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ravens 62% · total 48.7Full preview → - Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM EDTESPN / ABC
Bills27
Rams27We project Rams 27-27, a 0.4-point margin with 53.4 total points; Rams win 51% of the time.
Indoors (dome).Our numberEvenTotal 53.5DraftKingsLA -2.5Total 52.5Our number — Even · Total 53.5 | DraftKings — LA -2.5 · Total 52.5
We're 2.1 points higher on BUF than the book. Shown for comparison only.
Line: DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT
Market data for comparison only, not advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rams 51% · total 53.4Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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