Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 27, Dolphins 21 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Bengals win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 48 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game).
Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Bengals' below-average defense (24th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 22 and Dolphins by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Bengals schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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