Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 24, Titans 17 at Nissan Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Texans win about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 40.9 combined points.
The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game). The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game).
Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Texans' projected points come from. Expect Titans to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (6th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 23 and Titans by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Texans schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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