Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 25, Colts 23 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 48.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) meets Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colts puts up. Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Steelers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 15 and Steelers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Colts would be favoured by 0.2. The game is on CBS.
More: Colts schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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