Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 25, Saints 20 at Caesars Superdome in Week 5. That is a lean: Vikings win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up. Vikings' elite defense (1st) should limit Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 21 and Saints by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Vikings schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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