Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 23, Chargers 21 at SoFi Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up. Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 19 and Chargers by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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