Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 24, Bears 23 at Lambeau Field in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 46.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd). Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 16 and Packers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bears would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on FOX.
More: Bears schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.