Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 29, Cardinals 25 at State Farm Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Lions win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 20 and Cardinals by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Lions are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Lions schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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