Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 24, 49ers 22 at Lumen Field in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Seahawks win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game). The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game).
49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up. Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 15 and Seahawks by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field 49ers would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on FOX.
More: 49ers schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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