Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 26, Falcons 23 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Ravens win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 48.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. Expect Falcons to find it hard going: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 21 and Falcons by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Ravens are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
More: Ravens schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 5 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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