Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 21, Texans 17 at Wembley Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 37.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game). The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Expect Texans to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (4th) outranks Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense). Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jaguars puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 13 and Jaguars by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 1.2. The game is on NFL Net.
More: Texans schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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