NFL Week 6 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season has 14 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Panthers at Eagles (0.2-point margin), the highest projected total is Titans at Colts (46.3 points) and the lowest is Chargers at Chiefs (35.7). 6 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM EDTPrime Video
Seahawks20
Broncos18
We project Seahawks 20-18, a 2.7-point margin with 37.7 total points; Seahawks win 59% of the time.
Our number
SEA by 2.7
Total 37.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SEA by 2.7 · Total 37.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Seahawks 59% · total 37.7Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM EDTNFL Net
Texans17
Jaguars21
We project Jaguars 21-17, a 3.8-point margin with 37.4 total points; Jaguars win 62% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 3.8
Total 37.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 3.8 · Total 37.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 62% · total 37.4Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Bears23
Falcons20
We project Bears 23-20, a 2.7-point margin with 43.5 total points; Bears win 59% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 2.7
Total 43.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 2.7 · Total 43.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 59% · total 43.5Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Ravens19
Browns20
We project Browns 20-19, a 1.1-point margin with 39.3 total points; Browns win 54% of the time.
Our number
CLE by 1.1
Total 39.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CLE by 1.1 · Total 39.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Browns 54% · total 39.3Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Titans20
Colts26
We project Colts 26-20, a 5.5-point margin with 46.3 total points; Colts win 67% of the time.
Our number
IND by 5.5
Total 46.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — IND by 5.5 · Total 46.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Colts 67% · total 46.3Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Jets17
Patriots22
We project Patriots 22-17, a 5.1-point margin with 38.2 total points; Patriots win 66% of the time.
Our number
NE by 5.1
Total 38.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — NE by 5.1 · Total 38.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Patriots 66% · total 38.2Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTFOX
Saints21
Giants20
We project Saints 21-20, a 0.4-point margin with 41.1 total points; Saints win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 41.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 41.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saints 51% · total 41.1Full preview →

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Panthers20
Eagles21
We project Eagles 21-20, a 0.2-point margin with 41 total points; Eagles win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 41.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 41.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Eagles 51% · total 41Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDTCBS
Steelers20
Buccaneers20
We project Buccaneers 20-20, a 0.8-point margin with 40 total points; Buccaneers win 53% of the time.
Our number
TB by 0.8
Total 40
Book line
Not posted
Our number — TB by 0.8 · Total 40 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Buccaneers 53% · total 40Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM EDTFOX
Cardinals20
Rams25
We project Rams 25-20, a 5.6-point margin with 45 total points; Rams win 67% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LA by 5.6
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LA by 5.6 · Total 45 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rams 67% · total 45Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDTCBS
Chargers15
Chiefs21
We project Chiefs 21-15, a 5.5-point margin with 35.7 total points; Chiefs win 67% of the time.
Our number
KC by 5.5
Total 35.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — KC by 5.5 · Total 35.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 67% · total 35.7Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDTCBS
Bills22
Raiders22
We project Raiders 22-22, a 0.7-point margin with 44.1 total points; Raiders win 52% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LV by 0.7
Total 44.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LV by 0.7 · Total 44.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Raiders 52% · total 44.1Full preview →
Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM EDTNBC
Cowboys23
Packers23
We project Packers 23-23, a 0.3-point margin with 45.2 total points; Packers win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 45.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 45.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Packers 51% · total 45.2Full preview →
Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM EDTESPN / ABC
Commanders20
49ers24
We project 49ers 24-20, a 4.6-point margin with 44.2 total points; 49ers win 64% of the time.
Our number
SF by 4.6
Total 44.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SF by 4.6 · Total 44.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
49ers 64% · total 44.2Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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