Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 20, Ravens 19 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 39.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game).
Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. Expect Browns to find it hard going: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 16 and Browns by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ravens would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on FOX.
More: Ravens schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.