Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eagles 21, Panthers 20 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Eagles win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.2 points and 41 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Expect Panthers to find it hard going: Eagles' strong defense (8th) outranks Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Panthers by 17 and Eagles by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Panthers would be favoured by 2.4. The game is on CBS.
More: Panthers schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.