Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 23, Falcons 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Bears win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 43.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th); that mismatch is where most of Bears' projected points come from. Expect Falcons to find it hard going: Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 20 and Falcons by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Bears schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.