Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 21, Giants 20 at MetLife Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Saints win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 41.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game).
Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) should limit Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense). Expect Giants to find it hard going: Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) outranks Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 17 and Giants by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Saints are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Saints schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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