Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 20, Steelers 20 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Buccaneers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 40 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up. Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 16 and Buccaneers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Steelers would be favoured by 1.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Steelers schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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