Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 26, Titans 20 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Colts win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Titans puts up. Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Colts' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 11 and Colts by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 2.9. The game is on FOX.
More: Titans schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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