Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 25, Cardinals 20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Rams win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 45 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Rams' strong defense (9th) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 11 and Rams by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 3. The game is on FOX.
More: Cardinals schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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