Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 22, Bills 22 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th). Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Bills' below-average defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 16 and Raiders by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bills would be favoured by 1.9. The game is on CBS.
More: Bills schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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