Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 21, Chargers 15 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Chiefs win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 35.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Chiefs' strong defense (5th) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chiefs puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 11 and Chiefs by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 2.9. The game is on CBS.
More: Chargers schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.