Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 23, Cowboys 23 at Lambeau Field in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 45.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd). Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 17 and Packers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Cowboys would be favoured by 2.3. The game is on NBC.
More: Cowboys schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 6 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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