Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 22, Patriots 17 at Soldier Field in Week 7. That is a lean: Bears win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 39.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Expect Patriots to find it hard going: Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 12 and Bears by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 1.9. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Patriots schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 7 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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