Matchup analysis
Our model projects Patriots 21, Dolphins 16 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Patriots win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 36.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Patriots are 1-2, scoring 12 and allowing 17 points per game (-5 per game). The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game).
Patriots' below-average offense (25th of 32, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (25th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Patriots puts up. Patriots' elite defense (3rd) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 22 and Dolphins by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Patriots are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Patriots schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 8 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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