Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 21, Ravens 18 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 39.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from. Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) meets Jaguars' strong defense (4th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ravens puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 19 and Ravens by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Jaguars schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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