Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 23, Falcons 21 at Santiago Bernabéu in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th). Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' below-average defense (24th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 19 and Falcons by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bengals are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NFL Net.
More: Bengals schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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