Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 24, Browns 20 at Caesars Superdome in Week 9. That is a lean: Saints win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 43.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Expect Saints to find it hard going: Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) outranks Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 13 and Saints by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 1.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Browns schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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