Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 22, Broncos 21 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Panthers win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 42.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) against Panthers' below-average defense (27th). Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 16 and Panthers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Broncos would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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