Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 23, Dolphins 21 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Lions win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 43 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense) meets Lions' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Dolphins puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 19 and Dolphins by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Lions are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Lions schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.